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When do voters reveal candidate gender preferences? : Evidence from individual-level ballot data
Title / Series / Name
Publication Volume
Publication Issue
Pages
Editors
Keywords
Eastern Europe
candidate gender
open list proportional representation system
social network analysis
voting behaviour
JA Political science (General)
Sociology and Political Science
candidate gender
open list proportional representation system
social network analysis
voting behaviour
JA Political science (General)
Sociology and Political Science
URI
https://hdl.handle.net/20.500.14018/26635
Abstract
Does candidate gender matter for vote choice? Whereas experimental research suggests an average preference for female candidates, observational studies tend to find null effects. In this note, we address the recent debate on how to measure voter preferences on the aggregate and the individual level. We argue that candidate gender preferences exist, but that whether and when they are revealed varies between and within voters. Drawing on an observational design and using data from over 500,000 individual ballots in Lithuanian elections, we employ multilevel regression and exponential random graph models to show how voters' candidate gender preferences are distributed across the electorate and how they vary in size and direction. We find that about half of all voters prefer either male or female candidates. Whereas preference for male candidates tends to be revealed in the first and second preference votes, preference for female candidates is first revealed in lower preference votes. Our results help explain contradictory findings in the literature and illustrate how observational data and methods can be used to assess voter preferences within electorates.
Topic
Publisher
Place of Publication
Type
Journal article
Date
2025-02
Language
ISBN
Identifiers
10.1111/1475-6765.12679