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Failing the formative phase : The global diffusion of nuclear power is limited by national markets
Title / Series / Name
Publication Volume
Publication Issue
Pages
Editors
Keywords
Feasibility
Low carbon transition
Nuclear energy
Technology diffusion
Renewable Energy, Sustainability and the Environment
Nuclear Energy and Engineering
Fuel Technology
Energy Engineering and Power Technology
Social Sciences (miscellaneous)
SDG 7 - Affordable and Clean Energy
SDG 13 - Climate Action
Low carbon transition
Nuclear energy
Technology diffusion
Renewable Energy, Sustainability and the Environment
Nuclear Energy and Engineering
Fuel Technology
Energy Engineering and Power Technology
Social Sciences (miscellaneous)
SDG 7 - Affordable and Clean Energy
SDG 13 - Climate Action
URI
https://hdl.handle.net/20.500.14018/27079
Abstract
Understanding the role of technology characteristics and the context in the diffusion of new energy technologies is important for assessing feasibility of climate mitigation. We examine the historical adoption of nuclear power as a case of a complex large scale energy technology. We conduct an event history analysis of grid connections of first sizable commercial nuclear power reactors in 79 countries between 1950 and 2018. We show that the introduction of nuclear power can largely be explained by contextual variables such as the proximity of a country to a major technology supplier (‘ease of diffusion’), the size of the economy, electricity demand growth, and energy import dependence (‘market attractiveness’). The lack of nuclear newcomers in the early 1990s can be explained by the lack of countries with high growth in electricity demand and sufficient capacities to build their first nuclear power plant, either on their own or with international help. We also find that nuclear accidents, the pursuit of nuclear weapons, and the advances made in competing technologies played only a minor role in nuclear technology failing to be established in more countries. Our analysis improves understanding of the feasibility of introducing contested and expensive technologies in a heterogenous world with motivations and capacities that differ across countries and by a patchwork of international relations. While countries with high state capacity or support from a major technology supplier are capable of introducing large-scale technologies quickly, technology diffusion to other regions might undergo significant delays due to lower motivations and capacities.
Topic
Publisher
Place of Publication
Type
Journal article
Date
2021-10
Language
ISBN
Identifiers
10.1016/j.erss.2021.102221