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The Wrong Place at the Wrong Time? Territorial Autonomy and Conflict During Regime Transitions
Title / Series / Name
Publication Volume
Publication Issue
Pages
Authors
Editors
Keywords
civil war
democratization and regime change
ethnic conflict
ethnicity and politics
federalism
race
Sociology and Political Science
SDG 16 - Peace, Justice and Strong Institutions
democratization and regime change
ethnic conflict
ethnicity and politics
federalism
race
Sociology and Political Science
SDG 16 - Peace, Justice and Strong Institutions
URI
https://hdl.handle.net/20.500.14018/26498
Abstract
This article evaluates how territorial autonomy affects ethnic mobilization and conflict during regime transitions. Previous research has highlighted its conflict-inducing role during prominent transition contexts. Alternatively, it has shown its pacifying role in the “average” case, without distinguishing transition periods from stable contexts. Addressing these gaps, we argue that the de-escalatory consequences of autonomy depend on critical stabilizing factors which are themselves “muted” during transitions. We test our expectations in a cross-national analysis, covering all regime transitions between 1946 and 2017. We also revisit the 1989 transition from Communism, focusing on the role of “inherited” autonomy in the post-communist successor states. This enables us to address concerns whereby autonomy is offered to ward off transitions or whereby transitions are themselves induced by mobilization. Our findings indicate that during transitions, territorial autonomy increases the likelihood of ethnic mobilization, government concessions in response, and violent escalation where these are not forthcoming.
Topic
Publisher
Place of Publication
Type
Journal article
Date
2023-04-01
Language
ISBN
Identifiers
10.1177/00104140231168365