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Historical precedents and feasibility of rapid coal and gas decline required for the 1.5°C target
Vinichenko, Vadim Cherp, Aleh Jewell, Jessica
Vinichenko, Vadim
Cherp, Aleh
Jewell, Jessica
Title / Series / Name
One Earth
Publication Volume
4
Publication Issue
10
Pages
Editors
Keywords
IPCC scenarios
climate change mitigation
climate mitigation scenarios
coal phase-out
energy transitions
feasibility
fossil fuel decline
fossil fuel phase-out
integrated assessment models
General Environmental Science
Earth and Planetary Sciences (miscellaneous)
SDG 7 - Affordable and Clean Energy
SDG 13 - Climate Action
climate change mitigation
climate mitigation scenarios
coal phase-out
energy transitions
feasibility
fossil fuel decline
fossil fuel phase-out
integrated assessment models
General Environmental Science
Earth and Planetary Sciences (miscellaneous)
SDG 7 - Affordable and Clean Energy
SDG 13 - Climate Action
Files
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Cherp-Aleh2_2021.pdf
Adobe PDF, 1.68 MB
URI
https://hdl.handle.net/20.500.14018/27080
Abstract
To limit global warming to 1.5°C, fossil fuel use must rapidly decline, but historical precedents for such large-scale transitions are lacking. Here we identify 147 historical episodes and policy pledges of fossil fuel decline in 105 countries and global regions between 1960 and 2018. We analyze 43 cases in larger systems most relevant to climate scenarios. One-half of 1.5°C-compatible scenarios envision coal decline in Asia faster than in any of these cases. The remaining scenarios as well as many scenarios for coal and gas decline in other regions have precedents only where oil was replaced by coal, gas, or nuclear power in response to energy security threats. Achieving the 1.5°C target will be difficult in the absence of fossil fuel decline mechanisms that extend far beyond historical experience or current pledges.
Topic
Publisher
Place of Publication
Type
Journal article
Date
2021-10-22
Language
ISBN
Identifiers
10.1016/j.oneear.2021.09.012