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Navigating the winds of change:strategic foresight and the power of weak signals
Jabbour, Jason Davidson, Debra J. Carlsen, Henrik King, Nicholas Lucatello, Simone Aricò, Salvatore Cooke, Fang Lee Datta, Ranjan Gluckman, Peter Gutierrez-Espeleta, Edgar E.
Jabbour, Jason
Davidson, Debra J.
Carlsen, Henrik
King, Nicholas
Lucatello, Simone
Aricò, Salvatore
Cooke, Fang Lee
Datta, Ranjan
Gluckman, Peter
Gutierrez-Espeleta, Edgar E.
Title / Series / Name
Sustainability Science
Publication Volume
Publication Issue
Pages
Author
Jabbour, Jason
Davidson, Debra J.
Carlsen, Henrik
King, Nicholas
Lucatello, Simone
Aricò, Salvatore
Cooke, Fang Lee
Datta, Ranjan
Gluckman, Peter
Gutierrez-Espeleta, Edgar E.
Hinwood, Andrea
Jia, Gensuo
Komendantova, Nadejda
Lunga, Wilfred
Madise, Nyovani
Mangalagiu, Diana
Ali, Elham Mahmoud
Moronta-Barrios, Felix
Mycoo, Michelle
Piyawatanametha, Wibool
Stevance, Anne Sophie
Swaminathan, Soumya M.
Ürge-Vorsatz, Diana
Bojic, Ljubisa
Davidson, Debra J.
Carlsen, Henrik
King, Nicholas
Lucatello, Simone
Aricò, Salvatore
Cooke, Fang Lee
Datta, Ranjan
Gluckman, Peter
Gutierrez-Espeleta, Edgar E.
Hinwood, Andrea
Jia, Gensuo
Komendantova, Nadejda
Lunga, Wilfred
Madise, Nyovani
Mangalagiu, Diana
Ali, Elham Mahmoud
Moronta-Barrios, Felix
Mycoo, Michelle
Piyawatanametha, Wibool
Stevance, Anne Sophie
Swaminathan, Soumya M.
Ürge-Vorsatz, Diana
Bojic, Ljubisa
Editors
Keywords
Anticipatory governance
Disruption
Foresight
Systemic resilience
Weak signals
Global and Planetary Change
Health (social science)
Geography, Planning and Development
Ecology
Sociology and Political Science
Nature and Landscape Conservation
Management, Monitoring, Policy and Law
SDG 10 - Reduced Inequalities
SDG 13 - Climate Action
Disruption
Foresight
Systemic resilience
Weak signals
Global and Planetary Change
Health (social science)
Geography, Planning and Development
Ecology
Sociology and Political Science
Nature and Landscape Conservation
Management, Monitoring, Policy and Law
SDG 10 - Reduced Inequalities
SDG 13 - Climate Action
Files
URI
https://hdl.handle.net/20.500.14018/28839
Abstract
In an era of increased complexity, interdependence, uncertainty and rapidly advancing technology, the ability to identify and swiftly adapt to current and future trends is key to progressing sustainability. Intersecting drivers and stressors are converging to destabilize socioecological systems and reshape national, regional and global outlooks. The intersecting and converging crises of the 21st century have exposed the limits of planning that relies too heavily on linear extrapolations from well-known global/mega-trends. This study explores whether a limited number of emerging trends that only manifest as weak signals today serve as central conduits (super-nodes) for amplifying and accelerating systemic disruption. Using an exploratory mixed-methods design, a global Delphi survey (N = 790, 132 countries) generated 1200 horizon-scan items, inductively coded into 29 clusters. Scenario stress-testing distilled the findings into 280 candidate weak signals—ranked by likelihood, impact, and timing—from which 20 were shortlisted and mapped onto a 20 × 20 influence matrix through structured expert debate. Weighted degree centralities and a 10,000-run bootstrap test identified statistically significant hubs. Results suggest that anticipatory governance can be strengthened by prioritizing high-centrality signals and institutionalizing ongoing weak-signal scanning alongside transparent, multi-source decision-making to avoid cascading risks across planetary-health, economic, and technological systems. At the midpoint of a decade dominated by disruption–climate change, pandemic, geopolitical upheaval, widening inequality, war, misinformation and the rapid rise of Artificial Intelligence–we posit that strategic foresight and informed anticipation is a critical imperative in the pursuit of a global common good and a resilient future.
Topic
Publisher
Place of Publication
Type
Journal article
Date
2026-02
Language
ISBN
Identifiers
10.1007/s11625-025-01786-5