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Projections of potential flows to the enlarging EU from Ukraine, Croatia and other Eastern neighbors
Title / Series / Name
Publication Volume
Publication Issue
Pages
Authors
Editors
Keywords
C23
C53
F22
Demography
Anthropology
Sociology and Political Science
C53
F22
Demography
Anthropology
Sociology and Political Science
URI
https://hdl.handle.net/20.500.14018/27065
Abstract
This study evaluates potential migration flows to the European Union from its Eastern neighbors and Croatia. We perform out-of-sample forecasts to time series cross-sectional data about post-enlargement migration flows following the EU’s 2004 enlargement. We consider two baseline policy scenarios, with and without accession of sending countries to the EU. Our results show that migration flows are driven by migration costs and economic conditions, but the largest effects accrue to policy variables. In terms of the predicted flows: (i) we can expect modest migration flows in the case of no liberalization of labor markets and only moderately increased migration flows under liberalization; (ii) after an initial increase following liberalization, migration flows will subside to a long run steady state; (iii) Ukraine will send the most migrants; and (iv) the largest inflows in absolute terms are predicted for Germany, Italy and Austria, whereas Ireland, Denmark, Finland and again Austria are the main receiving countries relative to their population.
Topic
Publisher
Place of Publication
Type
Journal article
Date
2015-12-01
Language
ISBN
Identifiers
10.1186/s40176-015-0029-8