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Probabilistic projections of global wind and solar power growth based on historical national experience
Jakhmola, Avi Jewell, Jessica Vinichenko, Vadim Cherp, Aleh
Jakhmola, Avi
Jewell, Jessica
Vinichenko, Vadim
Cherp, Aleh
Title / Series / Name
Nature Energy
Publication Volume
Publication Issue
Pages
Editors
Keywords
Energy transitions
Renewable energy
Cimate change mitigation
Technology diffusion
Solar PV
Wind energy
Probabilistic projections
Electronic, Optical and Magnetic Materials
Renewable Energy, Sustainability and the Environment
Fuel Technology
Energy Engineering and Power Technology
SDG 7 - Affordable and Clean Energy
SDG 13 - Climate Action
Renewable energy
Cimate change mitigation
Technology diffusion
Solar PV
Wind energy
Probabilistic projections
Electronic, Optical and Magnetic Materials
Renewable Energy, Sustainability and the Environment
Fuel Technology
Energy Engineering and Power Technology
SDG 7 - Affordable and Clean Energy
SDG 13 - Climate Action
Files
URI
https://hdl.handle.net/20.500.14018/29012
Abstract
Despite the recent surge of wind and solar power, both technologies need to accelerate to meet climate goals. Yet, there are no robust methods to assess the likelihood of such acceleration. Here we show that renewable energy deployment follows a recurring pattern across countries with prolonged periods of relatively steady growth punctuated by growth pulses. Based on this insight and on observed growth trajectories in early adopting countries, we develop a probabilistic model (PROLONG) for projecting global wind and solar power deployment. In our central projections, both wind and solar power grow similarly to Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change 2 °C-compatible pathways and faster than in current policy scenarios. The COP28 pledge to triple renewables by 2030 is near the 95th percentile of our projections and requires that the growth of wind and solar photovoltaics in major economies accelerate by 1.4–3 times and 2–5 times, respectively. PROLONG can be adopted for data-driven projections of other policy-dependent energy technologies.
Topic
Publisher
Place of Publication
Type
Journal article
Date
2026-04-14
Language
ISBN
Identifiers
10.1038/s41560-026-02021-w