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Examining pathways for a climate neutral Europe by 2050; A model comparison analysis including integrated assessment models and energy system models
Title / Series / Name
Publication Volume
Publication Issue
Pages
Authors
Mikropoulos, Efstratios
Roelfsema, Mark
Chen, Hsing Hsuan
Staffell, Iain
Oreggioni, Gabriel
Hdidouan, Dan
Thellufsen, Jakob Zinck
Chang, Miguel Antonio
Fragkos, Panagiotis
Giannousakis, Anastasis
Chatterjee, Souran
Ãœrge-Vorsatz, Diana
Pfenninger, Stefan
Pickering, Bryn
Victoria, Marta
Brown, Tom
van Vuuren, Detlef P.
Roelfsema, Mark
Chen, Hsing Hsuan
Staffell, Iain
Oreggioni, Gabriel
Hdidouan, Dan
Thellufsen, Jakob Zinck
Chang, Miguel Antonio
Fragkos, Panagiotis
Giannousakis, Anastasis
Chatterjee, Souran
Ãœrge-Vorsatz, Diana
Pfenninger, Stefan
Pickering, Bryn
Victoria, Marta
Brown, Tom
van Vuuren, Detlef P.
Editors
Keywords
CO2 net neutrality
Current trends pathways
Decarbonization pathways
Energy system models
European green deal
Integrated assessment models
Muti-model comparison
Civil and Structural Engineering
Modeling and Simulation
Renewable Energy, Sustainability and the Environment
Building and Construction
Fuel Technology
Energy Engineering and Power Technology
Pollution
Mechanical Engineering
General Energy
Management, Monitoring, Policy and Law
Industrial and Manufacturing Engineering
Electrical and Electronic Engineering
SDG 7 - Affordable and Clean Energy
SDG 13 - Climate Action
Current trends pathways
Decarbonization pathways
Energy system models
European green deal
Integrated assessment models
Muti-model comparison
Civil and Structural Engineering
Modeling and Simulation
Renewable Energy, Sustainability and the Environment
Building and Construction
Fuel Technology
Energy Engineering and Power Technology
Pollution
Mechanical Engineering
General Energy
Management, Monitoring, Policy and Law
Industrial and Manufacturing Engineering
Electrical and Electronic Engineering
SDG 7 - Affordable and Clean Energy
SDG 13 - Climate Action
URI
https://hdl.handle.net/20.500.14018/26558
Abstract
The European Union's goal of achieving climate neutrality by 2050, outlined in the European Green Deal, is supported by numerous studies providing insights into pathways and emission reduction strategies in the energy sectors. However, model comparisons of such pathways are less common due to the complex nature of climate and energy modelling. Our study brings together integrated assessment models and energy system models under a common framework to develop EU policy scenarios: a Current Trends scenario reflecting existing policies and trends and a Climate Neutrality scenario aligned with the EU's emission reduction target. Both scenarios project reduced final energy consumption by 2050, driven by increased electrification and decreased fossil fuel usage. Electricity consumption increases driven by electrification despite the improved efficiency of electrified technologies. Models align on a shift toward renewables but diverge in technology and fuel choices, reflecting various approaches to reach net-zero energy systems. Furthermore, trade-offs between energy demand and supply mitigation strategies, as well as between renewable energy, e-fuels, and CCS technologies are identified. Considering these model variations, our study highlights the importance of consistent model comparison to offer reliable recommendations to policymakers and stakeholders. We conclude that model diversity is a valuable asset when used sensibly.
Topic
Publisher
Place of Publication
Type
Journal article
Date
2025-03-15
Language
ISBN
Identifiers
10.1016/j.energy.2025.134809