RSS 1.0Political Science
Recent Submissions
-
When right is left: Values and voting behavior in TunisiaAccording to theories on ideological differences, individuals who endorse the values of freedom, justice, and equality are expected to be left-wing oriented, whereas individuals who endorse authoritarian values are expected to be right-wing oriented. I hypothesize that such associations do not hold in the Arab world, where in the context of past state formation trajectories, leftists and secularists endorsed an authoritarian-nationalist discourse to build post-colonial states, while Islamists endorsed a freedom-and-justice discourse as a reaction to state oppression. Using original representative face-to-face survey data collected right after the 2019 Tunisian elections, I test this hypothesis by examining which values determine citizens’ voting behavior in both parliamentary and presidential elections. Results show that people who endorse liberty-and-justice values are more likely to vote for Islamist right-wing parties, whereas those who endorse authoritarian-nationalist values are more likely to vote for leftist parties. These results have important implications for the study of voting behavior in the Arab world and in comparative politics.
-
Fit for parliament: A new index of electability, assessing the electoral success of group-based partiesThe openness of the political system for the representation of social or economic groups through their parties is mired in complexities. Extant scholarship has identified multiple electoral system hurdles that jointly determine the institutional opportunities for group representation: This article offers a simple metric to the institutional parts of the political opportunity structure for the electoral representation of social groups. A single variable summarizes the institutional opportunities for group representation, as determined jointly by electoral rules, the demographic structure of ethnic minority groups and their electoral geography. This new Index of Electability considers recent innovations in electoral rules, such as mixed electoral systems, legal thresholds or quotas, which occur in most contemporary democracies. Empirically, the index is applied to ethnic minority parties in 57 plural democracies worldwide. It shows that our index highlights the necessary conditions for parliamentary representation of minorities through their own parties. Contrary to widespread belief that many minority groups form ethnic parties, only one out of three ethnic minority groups worldwide which could, in principle, do so, actually form such a party.
-
Consociationalism and the StateThe state has never been a central category in consociational analysis, but recent developments have put the state on the radar of consociational scholars. This article is the first to survey and systematize insights on the role of the state in consociational theory and practice. The article does so by providing an overview and review of the answers to three guiding questions. First, who owns the state? Second, what comes first—consociation or state building? Third, is there an inevitable tradeoff between consociationalism and state strength? All these questions and answers have normative and empirical dimensions, and this article seeks to make a contribution to both. Empirically, the article formulates a research agenda. Theoretically and normatively, the article sketches an original consociational approach to the state that goes back to the early days of the Westphalian state system and has surprising relevance in today’s world.
-
Demobilising far-right demonstration campaigns: Coercive counter-mobilisation, state social control, and the demobilisation of the Hess Gedenkmarsch campaignStudies of social movements have often focused on mobilisation and campaigning; by comparison, demobilisation has received little attention. This article adds to the body of literature on demobilisation by examining one case of demonstration campaign demobilisation. The ‘Hess Gedenkmarsch’ campaign in Germany, initiated in the late 1980s and demobilised by the mid-1990s, is not only a case of a causal mechanism of demobilisation, but also particularly important within far-right social movement activity: it was the vanguard campaign in a emergent pattern of ‘demonstration politics’ by far-right groups in Germany. The case exhibits a process whereby anti-far-right activists effectively engaged in a sort of kamikaze counter-mobilisation, seeking to shut down far-right events; this, in turn, spurred state authorities to act, imposing coercive measures that demobilised the far-right campaign. This case illustrates a causal mechanism of negative demobilisation that can be observed in other demonstration campaigns, and is particularly relevant to other cases of far-right activism.
-
May the lord protect our country: ethnic relations as a moderator between religiosity and radical right voteWhile we know a lot about the typical type of radical right-wing (RRWP) voter, individual religiosity in explaining support for RRWPs has eluded consistent scholarly attention. The mixed results available from the scarce literature find both positive and negative associations between religiosity and RRWPs vote. The variation in these relationships is puzzling, especially if we consider how RRWPs often present themselves as guardians of native ethnic and religious identity. In this paper we argue that religiosity increases the chance of voting for RRWPs when ethnic relations are a salient issue in the political system. We test our theory using multilevel regression modeling on the European Social Survey, specifically Rounds 7, 8 and 9 and replicate our results based on the European Values Study from 2017. We find that religiosity is a significant predictor of the RRWP vote when there are salient ethnic relations in the political system, proxied by the presence of an ethnic minority party. On the other hand, in countries without minority parties, non-religious individuals are more likely to vote for RRWPs.
-
Set‐theoretic Multimethod Research: The Role of Test Corridors and Conjunctions for Case SelectionSet-theoretic multimethod research (SMMR) using Qualitative Comparative Analysis (QCA) formalizes the choice of cases based on a truth table analysis. We make three recommendations for improving SMMR. First, current standards can lead to faulty case selection if causal inference on a conjunction is the goal. Case selection needs to take into account that the non-members of a conjunction might be empirically diverse and that only selected types of non-members are ideal for causal inference. Second, we formally show that cases with similar fuzzy-set memberships in a term and the outcome are the superior choice for process tracing. They minimize the expected membership in the mechanism and make it most difficult to pass a hypothesis test. Third, we propose formulas that comply with all SMMR principles and identify the best pairs of cases for analysis. We illustrate our arguments with a study of the effectiveness of sanctions against authoritarian regimes.
-
Caesarean politics in Hungary and PolandWe propose the new concept of Caesarean politics to explain democratic deconsolidation in Hungary and Poland. We argue the move towards illiberal democracy in both countries has been made possible by a shift towards Caesarean politics, in which radical changes are framed as “politics as usual”, while in fact these challenge the essence of liberal democracy. Focusing on the three pillars of Caesarean politics: (1) patronal politics, (2) state capture, and (3) identity politics, we show how both countries become cases of Caesarean politics, where, using discourses of “friends” and “enemies”, the leader coordinates vast patronal networks that capture the state.
-
Democratic equilibria: Albert Hirschman and workplace democracyThis paper clarifies the usage of Albert Hirschman’s categories of market behaviour as of exit and voice in debates about workplace democracy by taking seriously his critique of the neoclassical analysis of competition. Promarket liberals are generally hostile to the idea of workplace democracy and tend to favour top-down hierarchies as a way of organising labour. This hostility is generally inspired by the neoclassical analysis of exploitation and efficiency, which leads them to defend distributions achieved through exit-based competitive equilibria. Following Hirschman, I propose to consider a hypothetical alternative: a democratic equilibrium, reached through the use of voice. I show that it would present the same appealing characteristics than its competitive counterpart while also accounting for the non-ideal conditions in which markets operate. Support for free markets should entail support for workplace democracy minimally understood as a strengthening of voice.
-
Building national ownership of the European Semester: the role of European Semester officersThe European Semester of socio-economic policy coordination has been criticised for poor capacity to induce national ownership of reforms. Reacting to these pressures, the European Commission intensified bilateral and multilateral efforts to increase the legitimacy of the Semester. European Semester officers (ESOs) were sent to Commission’s representations in Member States to reinforce policy dialogue. This paper spells out to what extent and how ESOs contribute to national ownership and throughput legitimacy of the European Semester in Member States. The findings suggest that ESOs are an important domestic link in fostering throughput legitimacy of the European semester by way of establishing dialogue with domestic actors and justifying the reasoning behind Commission’s initiatives. Conversely, they succeed less in transmitting stakeholders’ policy concerns and suggestions to the Commission. ESOs’ domestic engagement could, nonetheless, serve as an entry point for Commission’s future efforts in building domestic ownership and hence reducing blame-shifting practices.
-
Revisiting the European Convention: The origins of the EP veto over international commercial treatiesThe European Parliament had long tried and failed to gain a substantive role in the Common Commercial Policy. The Treaty of Lisbon brought a breakthrough for the EP by giving it a veto over international trade treaties. The rule change originated at the Constitutional Convention. While it is generally accepted that the Convention was steered by a desire to make the EU more legitimate, it is argued here that the rule change resulted from the complex agency of MEPs that participated at the Convention, who simultaneously appealed to ill-informed national participants’ sense of appropriateness and employed obfuscation tactics. The piece also makes a concerted effort to develop process tracing as a transparent and powerful tool for single case research. The evidence used to update our confidence in the causal mechanism is presented and evaluated in a structured manner in the appendix.
-
Distributive politics as behavioral localism: Evidence from a vignette experiment in HungaryRecent literature on friends-and-neighbors voting focused on explaining citizens’ motives behind supporting local candidates; the cue-based account suggests that local ties signal accountability, constituency service orientation, and policy representation. Localism was also posited to serve as a cue for distributive politics, but assumptions of voters making inferences about receiving tangible benefits once a politician from their own stock is elected were not corroborated empirically. Drawing on a survey experiment ( N = 2000) fielded in Hungary, the paper provides a test of pork barrel politics and clientelism serving as manifestations of behavioral localism; that is, if voters formulate expectations of politicians engaging in aforementioned practices based on their local roots. Respondents in treatment and control group were shown the same candidate profile, fictive politicians differing only in their local roots. Results demonstrate that respondents who were told that the candidate was born and living in their hometown were more likely to believe that the politician will “bring home the bacon” as opposed to those confronted with a randomly selected Hungarian settlement as the candidate’s birthplace and residence. Findings refine our understanding of friends-and-neighbors voting, as well as voters’ expectations about likely non-programmatic behavior of elected candidates.
-
Prime ministers in minority governments: The case of HungaryWhereas early scholarship depicted minority cabinets as weak recent findings demonstrate how various factors contribute to effective minority governance. Nevertheless, the role of prime ministers (PMs) was largely ignored in the performance of these cabinets. The paper addresses this problem by comparing Hungary's only two minority governments in an MSSD framework. Combining a qualitative review with a quantitative analysis of voting patterns in Parliament, it argues that differences in aforementioned cabinets’ policy performance can be traced back to contrasting ideological position of PMs and subsequent ideological moderation. These findings have important implications for minority governments in majoritarian and polarised contexts.
-
Greater than the sum of its part(ie)s: opposition comeback in the 2019 Hungarian local electionsThe Hungarian municipal elections of October 2019 were the first ray of hope for the numerous political forces aiming to topple the decade-long Fidesz rule. In this election, the opposition won Budapest’s mayoral seat and 10 of the 23 larger cities (turning 8). They also won majorities in the capital’s assembly and among the 23 district mayors (turning 10). This was possible through unprecedented coordination of all viable opposition parties, electoral innovations like primaries, effective messaging, and a major Fidesz scandal. We discuss the story of this election and the impact of COVID-19 on the newly elected opposition mayors.
-
Food web aggregation: effects on key positionsFood webs are often simulated dynamically to explore how trophic interactions influence resource and consumer abundances. As large trophic networks cannot be simulated in their original size – it would be too computationally expansive – they are shrunk by aggregating species together. However, key species may get lumped during this process, masking their unique role in their ecosystem. Therefore, a more systematic understanding of the aggregation effects on key positions is needed. Here, we study how six aggregation methods change 24 importance indices used to find key species in food webs. Our work was carried out on 76 aquatic food webs from the Ecopath with Ecosim database (EcoBase). The aggregation methods we considered were: 1) hierarchical clustering with the Jaccard index; 2) hierarchical clustering with the REGE index; 3) clustering within classic food web modules, which we refer to as ‘density-based’ modules; 4) clustering within ‘predator-based modules’ in which species fed on the same preys; 5) clustering within ‘prey-based modules’ in which species are fed upon by the same predators; and 6) clustering within ‘groups’ in which species share the same probability to interact with other groups. Hierarchical clustering with the REGE index produced the best results. Therefore, we recommend using it if we were interested in maintaining the identity of key species. The other algorithms could also be used to study specific network processes. However, we need to consider the bias they produce when masking important species.
-
Childhood: Value and dutiesIn philosophy, there are two competitor views about the nature and value of childhood: The first is the traditional, deficiency, view, according to which children are mere unfinished adults. The second is a view that has recently become increasingly popular amongst philosophers, and according to which children, perhaps in virtue of their biological features, have special and valuable capacities, and, more generally, privileged access to some sources of value. This article provides a conceptual map of these views and their possible interpretations, and notes their bearing on issues of population ethics and on the duties that we are owed during childhood.
-
Beyond “unwinding”: Constitutional review strategies in consociationsThis article contributes to the emerging literature on the role of constitutional courts in consociational democracies. While most works have approached the topic from the perspective of regime dynamics, this analysis focuses on how courts relate to the constitutions they are mandated to enforce. Beyond addressing the empirical question of what choices courts make in their balancing between universal values and stability, this article also investigates how courts do this balancing. Through the analysis of seven cases from two consociations, Bosnia and Herzegovina and Northern Ireland, I argue that courts embrace specific interpretive approaches (proportionality analysis, purposive interpretation, and the political question doctrine) to reconcile the ideas of constitutional supremacy and respect for political agreements. The analysis also demonstrates how—by their nature political—framework agreements establishing consociational settlements become primary reference points for interpreting constitutional documents.
-
The MTST Politics of Social Rights: Counter-Conducts, Acts of Citizenship and a Radical Struggle Beyond HousingThe Brazilian Movimento dos Trabalhadores sem Teto (MTST)—Homeless Workers’ Movement—is a social movement that struggles for housing and for a radical transformation of capitalistic socio-economic relations. The present paper offers a problematization of the movement’s plea to social rights. They are part of the movement’s discourse and strategy. However, the activists’ objective is more radical: they aim at a complete transformation of the Brazilian economy and society. By first discussing two sets of literatures—Critical Legal Theory and Governmentality Studies—this article illustrates the complexity and the ambivalences of a radical politics of rights. Then, by contrasting my ongoing ethnographic research with the work of James Holston and Lucy Earle, I discuss the relevance of a citizenship framework for the MTST’s struggle. Finally, inspired by Foucault’s concept of counter-conducts, the article argues that the movement’s politics of rights represents an effective tactic to contrast neoliberal governmentality and to create radical democratic spaces of struggle and collective resistance.
-
Right-wing authoritarian innovations in Central and Eastern EuropeThe decline of the quality of democracy in Central and Eastern Europe was facilitated by intellectual, ideological, and organizational innovations of a new authoritarian elite. I this article I discuss five such innovations: a particular combination of victim mentality, self-confidence and resentment against the West, the transformation of neighbor-hating nationalisms into a civilizationist anti-immigrant platform, the delegitimization of civil society and the return to the belief in a strong state, the resurrection of the Christian political identity, and the transformation of populist discourse into a language and organizational strategy that is compatible with governmental roles (“populist establishment”). These factors together point to an overarching ideological fame that I call paternalist populism.
-
Wage Penalty for Temporary Workers in Turkey: Evidence From Quantile RegressionsThe paper estimates the wage gap between employees with different contract types in Turkey. We first employ a quantile regression method and then decompose wage differentials along the distribution. Our results indicate that nonpermanent contract holders are more common among the low-skilled and low-wage group. The findings imply a non-monotone pattern in Turkey where both sticky floor and glass ceiling effects are observable. These effects are persistent over time as both bottom- and top-earner temporary workers are penalized, and the wage gap displays almost no change for each group. Also, from the quantile decomposition, we reveal that the wage gap for low earners is mainly attributable to labor market characteristics. On the other hand, returns are primarily responsible for explaining the wage gap for high earners, suggesting that they are subject to unfavorable conditions in the labor market.
-
Feeling insecure and excluding immigrants: Relationship between subjective risks and welfare chauvinismWe argue that subjective insecurity plays an important role in explaining welfare chauvinism, which is defined as the restriction of immigrants' access to social benefits and public services. Additionally, macroeconomic performance and welfare regime are closely related to opinions about the social rights of migrant groups. We test these propositions, using a multilevel ordered logit model using the 8th wave of ESS. It is found that subjective unemployment and income risks are not overlapping with objective measures, and self-assessed insecurity has a strong and positive effect on welfare chauvinism. Moreover, we demonstrate that, even for the most socio-economically advantaged respondents, subjective risk increases the likelihood of chauvinistic welfare attitudes. At the macro level, higher rates of GDP per capita growth decrease welfare chauvinism, and Central and Eastern European welfare regime increases the likelihood of exclusionary attitudes in relative terms. The results are robust across different estimation techniques and inclusion of alternative contextual factors.
