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dc.contributor.authorTéglás, Ernő
dc.contributor.authorGirotto, Vittorio
dc.contributor.authorGonzalez, Michel
dc.contributor.authorBonatti, Luca L.
dc.date.available2022-03-29T09:01:28Z
dc.date.issued2007
dc.identifier.doi10.1073/pnas.0700271104
dc.identifier.urihttp://hdl.handle.net/20.500.14018/10634
dc.description.abstractRational agents should integrate probabilities in their predictions about uncertain future events. However, whether humans can do this, and if so, how this ability originates, are controversial issues. Here, we show that 12-month-olds have rational expectations about the future based on estimations of event possibilities, without the need of sampling past experiences. We also show that such natural expectations influence preschoolers’ reaction times, while frequencies modify motor responses, but not overt judgments, only after 4 years of age. Our results suggest that at the onset of human decision processes the mind contains an intuition of elementary probability that cannot be reduced to the encountered frequency of events orelementary heuristics.
dc.language.isoeng
dc.titleIntuitions of probabilities shape expectations about the future at 12 months and beyond
dc.typeJournal article
dc.source.journaltitleProceedings of the National Academy of Sciences
dc.source.volume104
dc.source.issue48
dc.source.spage19156
dc.source.epage19159
refterms.dateFOA2022-03-29T09:01:28Z
dc.contributor.unitDepartment of Cognitive Science


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