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Intuitions of probabilities shape expectations about the future at 12 months and beyond
Editors
Title / Series / Name
Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences
Publication Volume
104
Publication Issue
48
Pages
Editors
Keywords
URI
http://hdl.handle.net/20.500.14018/10634
Abstract
Rational agents should integrate probabilities in their predictions about uncertain future events. However, whether humans can do this, and if so, how this ability originates, are controversial issues. Here, we show that 12-month-olds have rational expectations about the future based on estimations of event possibilities, without the need of sampling past experiences. We also show that such natural expectations influence preschoolers’ reaction times, while frequencies modify motor responses, but not overt judgments, only after 4 years of age. Our results suggest that at the onset of human decision processes the mind contains an intuition of elementary probability that cannot be reduced to the encountered frequency of events orelementary heuristics.
Topic
Publisher
Place of Publication
Type
Journal article
Date
2007
Language
ISBN
Identifiers
10.1073/pnas.0700271104