Environmental Sciences and Policy

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Rising inequality : A material perspective on the Great Recession in the European Union
(2025-01) Schaffartzik, Anke; Duro, Juan Antonio; Department of Environmental Sciences and Policy
The 2007/8 economic crisis and the global Great Recession led to widespread turmoil and instability. In Europe, unprecedented reductions in per capita resource use were crisis-driven rather than the result of deliberate policies. This study examines material use patterns in the EU-27 from 2000 to 2020, covering the period before and the onset of the Great Recession. We find that average material consumption in Europe decreased and has since stagnated, although this trend is uneven, with growing underlying inequalities, as measured using the Theil index of metabolic rates. The patterns in construction materials especially shape overall resource use trajectories. The role of infrastructure and services provisioning, especially where these are fossil-fueled, emerges as key in understanding these patterns. Geographic groupings of EU member states—Northern, Eastern, Mediterranean, and Central—further explain the inequalities that deepened following the recession. These emerging disparities raise important questions about what underpins the European project in a Union in which growth or sustained wealth in some member states systematically coincides with what can only be described as collapse elsewhere.
Changing, But Not in Decline : Globalization From a Sociometabolic Perspective
(2024-09-21) Schaffartzik, Anke; Department of Environmental Sciences and Policy
From the climate crisis to biodiversity loss, interrelated crises of society–nature relations are linked to global growth in resource use, extractive expansion, and unequal distribution. Next to critical research on the socioeconomic issues of (de)globalization, a sociometabolic perspective on the extraction and trade of material and energy resources is therefore needed. Material extraction has surged dramatically since 1970, tripling from 31 Gigatons (Gt) to 96 Gt by 2019. The share of that extraction destined for trade has also increased. Fossil fuel usage in the global energy system has continued to rise, reaching a staggering 490 Exajoules in 2019. Because fossil fuels are not ubiquitously available, maintaining the fossil energy system requires trade. From a sociometabolic perspective, globalization is not in decline. Recently, however, global growth has coincided with new patterns in income-based country groupings, which this article details. But even as these patterns change, material and energy use remain globalized.
An interdisciplinary framework for navigating social–climatic tipping points
(2023-10) Graham, Sonia; Wary, Melanie; Calcagni, Fulvia; Cisneros, Mercè; de Luca, Claudia; Gorostiza, Santiago; Stedje Hanserud, Ola; Kallis, Giorgos; Kotsila, Panagiota; Leipold, Sina; Malumbres-Olarte, Jagoba; Partridge, Tristan; Petit-Boix, Anna; Schaffartzik, Anke; Shokry, Galia; Tirado-Herrero, Sergio; van den Bergh, Jeroen; Ziveri, Patrizia; Department of Environmental Sciences and Policy
To effectively navigate out of the climate crisis, a new interdisciplinary approach is needed to guide and facilitate research that integrates diverse understandings of how transitions evolve in intertwined social–environmental systems. The concept of tipping points, frequently used in the natural sciences and increasingly in the social sciences, can help elucidate processes underlying major social–environmental transitions. We develop the notion of interlinked ‘social–climatic tipping points’ in which desirability and intentionality are key constitutive features alongside stable states, feedbacks, reversibility and abruptness. We demonstrate the new insights that our interdisciplinary framework can provide by analysing the slowdown of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation and associated flooding of the Ahr Valley in Germany as a social–climatic tipping point. This framework can enable more sustainable and equitable futures by prioritising social–climatic tipping points for interdisciplinary research, identifying opportunities for action, and evaluating the nuanced desirability and acceptability of proposed solutions. Read the free Plain Language Summary for this article on the Journal blog.
Globalisierung: Globale Warenketten und Arbeitsteilung
(Springer, 2023) Schaffartzik, Anke; Görg , Christoph; Madner, Verena; Muhar, Andreas; Department of Environmental Sciences and Policy
Importance value of landscapes, flora and fauna to Tsonga communities in the rural areas of Limpopo province, South Africa
(2007) Anthony, Brandon P.; Bellinger, Edward G.; Department of Environmental Sciences and Policy
Many parts of the former homeland areas of South Africa are believed to be experiencing environmental scarcity, and are increasingly vulnerable to resource over-exploitation. Frequently, these areas are adjacent to formally protected areas and present unique challenges in integrating biodiversity conservation and sustaining livelihoods, especially for resource-dependent rural communities. Although studies have been undertaken on the use of various plants by Tsonga communities, and the economic value of specific taxa, no investigation on the relative importance value that considers both wild flora and fauna, together with landscapes, has been carried out previously in the former Gazankulu homeland. We used a weighted ranking exercise for nine focus groups within three rural villages bordering the Kruger National Park, which are largely dependent on wild resources, to assess the relative importance of landscape units and species-level biodiversity. Landscape units, particularly forest/bush and river/stream, were found to be extensively used in meeting community needs, across a range of resource use categories including maintaining socio-cultural norms. Moreover, landscape units vary among villages and age/gender regarding how they contribute to sustaining livelihoods. In total, 162 taxa were identified, with two taxa (Sclerocarya birrea subsp. caffra; Ficus spp.) exploited in up to seven use categories. Sclerocarya birrea, Combretum imberbe and Colophospermum mopane were the most highly valued species among those surveyed, contributing 22% to the overall value of wild flora and fauna in the area. Of those identified, 28 faunal (60%) and 10 floral (8.7%) taxa are listed in either IUCN, national or provincial protected species schedules. Based on combined Local Users Value scores, over 20% of all biodiversity value for local communities comes from protected tree species. Similarly, faunal taxa with enhanced protection constitute almost 12% of all local biodiversity value. In developing strategies for resource conservation, it is necessary to recognize this widespread use of the natural environment and the wild products, including those under formal protection, exploited by local people.
The concept of energy security : Beyond the four as
(2014-12-01) Cherp, Aleh; Jewell, Jessica; Department of Environmental Sciences and Policy
Energy security studies have expanded from their classic beginnings following the 1970s oil crises to encompass various energy sectors and increasingly diverse issues. This viewpoint contributes to the re-examination of the meaning of energy security that has accompanied this expansion. Our starting point is that energy security is an instance of security in general and thus any concept of it should address three questions: "Security for whom?", "Security for which values?" and "Security from what threats?" We examine an influential approach - the 'four As of energy security' (availability, accessibility, affordability, and acceptability) and related literature of energy security - to show it does not address these questions. We subsequently summarize recent insights which propose a different concept of energy security as 'low vulnerability of vital energy systems'. This approach opens the road for detailed exploration of vulnerabilities as a combination of exposure to risks and resilience and of the links between vital energy systems and critical social functions. The examination of energy security framed by this concept involves several scientific disciplines and provides a useful platform for scholarly analysis and policy learning.
Is China's outward investment in oil a global security concern?
(2012-12-01) Alon, Ilan; Cherp, Aleh; Department of Environmental Sciences and Policy
The motivations prompting China's dramatic increase in outward foreign direct investment (OFDI) are not always clear, especially regarding OFDI by state-owned enterprises (SOEs) in energy and natural resources. First, both commercial and governmental interests are intertwined, although not necessarily in lock-step. Chinese SOEs listed in the West may worry about the reputational risks to their global corporate citizenship, while government stakeholders may instead focus on diplomatic international relations. Second, subsidies for oil investments may be viewed as serving Chinese national interests and threatening the national security of the host countries. Whether China's OFDI will benefit or harm global energy security, economic development and diplomatic relations is still hotly contested. This article discusses China's outward investment in oil with a global security concern.
Comparing electricity transitions : A historical analysis of nuclear, wind and solar power in Germany and Japan
(2017) Cherp, Aleh; Vinichenko, Vadim; Jewell, Jessica; Suzuki, Masahiro; Antal, Miklós; Department of Environmental Sciences and Policy
This paper contributes to understanding national variations in using low-carbon electricity sources by comparing the evolution of nuclear, wind and solar power in Germany and Japan. It develops and applies a framework for analyzing low-carbon electricity transitions based on interplay of techno-economic, political and socio-technical processes. We explain why in the 1970s–1980s, the energy paths of the two countries were remarkably similar, but since the 1990s Germany has become a leader in renewables while phasing out nuclear energy, whereas Japan has deployed less renewables while becoming a leader in nuclear power. We link these differences to the faster growth of electricity demand and energy insecurity in Japan, the easier diffusion of onshore wind power technology and the weakening of the nuclear power regime induced by stagnation and competition from coal and renewables in Germany. We show how these changes involve the interplay of five distinct mechanisms which may also play a role in other energy transitions.
Integrating techno-economic, socio-technical and political perspectives on national energy transitions : A meta-theoretical framework
(2018-03) Cherp, Aleh; Vinichenko, Vadim; Jewell, Jessica; Brutschin, Elina; Sovacool, Benjamin; Department of Environmental Sciences and Policy
Economic development, technological innovation, and policy change are especially prominent factors shaping energy transitions. Therefore explaining energy transitions requires combining insights from disciplines investigating these factors. The existing literature is not consistent in identifying these disciplines nor proposing how they can be combined. We conceptualize national energy transitions as a co-evolution of three types of systems: energy flows and markets, energy technologies, and energy-related policies. The focus on the three types of systems gives rise to three perspectives on national energy transitions: techno-economic with its roots in energy systems analysis and various domains of economics; socio-technical with its roots in sociology of technology, STS, and evolutionary economics; and political with its roots in political science. We use the three perspectives as an organizing principle to propose a meta-theoretical framework for analyzing national energy transitions. Following Elinor Ostrom's approach, the proposed framework explains national energy transitions through a nested conceptual map of variables and theories. In comparison with the existing meta-theoretical literature, the three perspectives framework elevates the role of political science since policies are likely to be increasingly prominent in shaping 21st century energy transitions.
Societal Transformations in Models for Energy and Climate Policy : The Ambitious Next Step
(2019-12-20) Trutnevyte, Evelina; Hirt, Léon F.; Bauer, Nico; Cherp, Aleh; Hawkes, Adam; Edelenbosch, Oreane Y.; Pedde, Simona; van Vuuren, Detlef P.; Department of Environmental Sciences and Policy
Whether and how long-term energy and climate targets can be reached depend on a range of interlinked factors: technology, economy, environment, policy, and society at large. Integrated assessment models of climate change or energy-system models have limited representations of societal transformations, such as behavior of various actors, transformation dynamics in time, and heterogeneity across and within societies. After reviewing the state of the art, we propose a research agenda to guide experiments to integrate more insights from social sciences into models: (1) map and assess societal assumptions in existing models, (2) conduct empirical research on generalizable and quantifiable patterns to be integrated into models, and (3) build and extensively validate modified or new models. Our proposed agenda offers three benefits: interdisciplinary learning between modelers and social scientists, improved models with a more complete representation of multifaceted reality, and identification of new and more effective solutions to energy and climate challenges.
Historical precedents and feasibility of rapid coal and gas decline required for the 1.5°C target
(2021-10-22) Vinichenko, Vadim; Cherp, Aleh; Jewell, Jessica; Department of Environmental Sciences and Policy
To limit global warming to 1.5°C, fossil fuel use must rapidly decline, but historical precedents for such large-scale transitions are lacking. Here we identify 147 historical episodes and policy pledges of fossil fuel decline in 105 countries and global regions between 1960 and 2018. We analyze 43 cases in larger systems most relevant to climate scenarios. One-half of 1.5°C-compatible scenarios envision coal decline in Asia faster than in any of these cases. The remaining scenarios as well as many scenarios for coal and gas decline in other regions have precedents only where oil was replaced by coal, gas, or nuclear power in response to energy security threats. Achieving the 1.5°C target will be difficult in the absence of fossil fuel decline mechanisms that extend far beyond historical experience or current pledges.
Failing the formative phase : The global diffusion of nuclear power is limited by national markets
(2021-10) Brutschin, Elina; Cherp, Aleh; Jewell, Jessica; Department of Environmental Sciences and Policy
Understanding the role of technology characteristics and the context in the diffusion of new energy technologies is important for assessing feasibility of climate mitigation. We examine the historical adoption of nuclear power as a case of a complex large scale energy technology. We conduct an event history analysis of grid connections of first sizable commercial nuclear power reactors in 79 countries between 1950 and 2018. We show that the introduction of nuclear power can largely be explained by contextual variables such as the proximity of a country to a major technology supplier (‘ease of diffusion’), the size of the economy, electricity demand growth, and energy import dependence (‘market attractiveness’). The lack of nuclear newcomers in the early 1990s can be explained by the lack of countries with high growth in electricity demand and sufficient capacities to build their first nuclear power plant, either on their own or with international help. We also find that nuclear accidents, the pursuit of nuclear weapons, and the advances made in competing technologies played only a minor role in nuclear technology failing to be established in more countries. Our analysis improves understanding of the feasibility of introducing contested and expensive technologies in a heterogenous world with motivations and capacities that differ across countries and by a patchwork of international relations. While countries with high state capacity or support from a major technology supplier are capable of introducing large-scale technologies quickly, technology diffusion to other regions might undergo significant delays due to lower motivations and capacities.
Phases of fossil fuel decline : Diagnostic framework for policy sequencing and feasible transition pathways in resource dependent regions
(2022) Nacke, Lola; Cherp, Aleh; Jewell, Jessica; Department of Environmental Sciences and Policy
Phasing out fossil fuels requires destabilizing incumbent regimes while protecting vulnerable groups negatively affected by fossil fuel decline. We argue that sequencing destabilization and just transition policies addresses three policy problems: phasing out fossil fuels, transforming affected industries, and ensuring socio-economic recovery in fossil resource-dependent regions. We identify the key mechanisms shaping the evolution of the three systems associated with these policy problems: (i) transformations of technological systems addressed by the socio-technical transitions literature, (ii) responses of firms and industries addressed by the management and business literature and (iii) regional strategies for socio-economic recovery addressed by the regional geography and economics literatures. We then draw on Elinor Ostrom’s approach to synthesize these different bodies of knowledge into a diagnostic tool that enables scholars to identify the phase of decline for each system, within which the nature and importance of different risks to sustained fossil fuel decline varies. The main risk in the first phase is lock-in or persistence of status quo. In the second phase, the main risk is backlash from affected companies and workers. In the third phase, the main risk is regional despondence. We illustrate our diagnostic tool with three empirical cases of phases of coal decline: South Africa (Phase 1), the USA (Phase 2) and the Netherlands (Phase 3). Our review contributes to developing effective policy sequencing for phasing out fossil fuels.
Phasing out coal for 2 °C target requires worldwide replication of most ambitious national plans despite security and fairness concerns
(2023-01-01) Vinichenko, Vadim; Vetier, Marta; Jewell, Jessica; Nacke, Lola; Cherp, Aleh; Department of Environmental Sciences and Policy
Ending the use of unabated coal power is a key climate change mitigation measure. However, we do not know how fast it is feasible to phase-out coal on the global scale. Historical experience of individual countries indicates feasible coal phase-out rates, but can these be upscaled to the global level and accelerated by deliberate action? To answer this question, we analyse 72 national coal power phase-out pledges and show that these pledges have diffused to more challenging socio-economic contexts and now cover 17% of the global coal power fleet, but their impact on emissions (up to 4.8 Gt CO2 avoided by 2050) remains small compared to what is needed for achieving Paris climate targets. We also show that the ambition of pledges is similar across countries and broadly in line with historical precedents of coal power decline. While some pledges strengthen over time, up to 10% have been weakened by the energy crisis caused by the Russo-Ukrainian war. We construct scenarios of coal power decline based on empirically-grounded assumptions about future diffusion and ambition of coal phase-out policies. We show that under these assumptions unabated coal power generation in 2022-2050 would be between the median generation in 2 °C-consistent IPCC AR6 pathways and the third quartile in 2.5 °C-consistent pathways. More ambitious coal phase-out scenarios require much stronger effort in Asia than in OECD countries, which raises fairness and equity concerns. The majority of the 1.5 °C- and 2 °C-consistent IPCC pathways envision even more unequal distribution of effort and faster coal power decline in India and China than has ever been historically observed in individual countries or pledged by climate leaders.
Feasibility trade-offs in decarbonising the power sector with high coal dependence : The case of Korea
(2023-08-01) Hyun, Minwoo; Cherp, Aleh; Jewell, Jessica; Kim, Yeong Jae; Eom, Jiyong; Department of Environmental Sciences and Policy
Decarbonising the power sector requires feasible strategies for the rapid phase-out of fossil fuels and the expansion of low-carbon sources. This study assesses the feasibility of plausible decarbonisation scenarios for the power sector in the Republic of Korea through 2050 and 2060. Our power plant stock accounting model results show that achieving zero emissions from the power sector by the mid-century requires either an ambitious expansion of renewables backed by gas-fired generation equipped with carbon capture and storage or a significant increase of nuclear power. The first strategy implies replicating and maintaining for decades the maximum growth rates of solar power achieved in leading countries and becoming an early and ambitious adopter of the carbon capture and storage technology. The alternative expansion of nuclear power has historical precedents in Korea and other countries but may not be acceptable in the current political and regulatory environment. Hence, our analysis shows that the potential hurdles for decarbonisation in the power sector in Korea are formidable but manageable and should be overcome over the coming years, which gives hope to other similar countries.
Have climate policies accelerated energy transitions? Historical evolution of electricity mix in the G7 and the EU compared to net-zero targets
(2023-12-01) Suzuki, Masahiro; Jewell, Jessica; Cherp, Aleh; Department of Environmental Sciences and Policy
Climate policies are often assumed to have significant impacts on the nature and speed of energy transitions. To investigate this hypothesis, we develop an approach to categorise, trace, and compare energy transitions across countries and time periods. We apply this approach to analyse electricity transitions in the G7 and the EU between 1960 and 2022, specifically examining whether and how climate policies altered the transitions beyond historical trends. Additionally, we conduct a feasibility analysis of the required transition in these countries by 2035 to keep the global temperature increase below 1.5°C. We find that climate policies have so far had limited impacts: while they may have influenced the choice of deployed technologies and the type of transitions, they have not accelerated the growth of low-carbon technologies or hastened the decline of fossil fuels. Instead, electricity transitions in the G7 and the EU have strongly correlated with the changes in electricity demand throughout the last six decades. In contrast, meeting the 1.5°C target requires unprecedented supply-centred transitions by 2035 where all G7 countries and the EU must expand low-carbon electricity five times faster and reduce fossil fuels two times faster on average compared to the rates in 2015–2020. This highlights the insufficiency of incremental changes and the need for a radically stronger effort to meet the climate target.
Historical diffusion of nuclear, wind and solar power in different national contexts : implications for climate mitigation pathways
(2023-09-01) Vinichenko, Vadim; Jewell, Jessica; Jacobsson, Johan; Cherp, Aleh; Department of Environmental Sciences and Policy
Climate change mitigation requires rapid expansion of low-carbon electricity but there is a disagreement on whether available technologies such as renewables and nuclear power can be scaled up sufficiently fast. Here we analyze the diffusion of nuclear (from the 1960s), as well as wind and solar (from the 1980-90s) power. We show that all these technologies have been adopted in most large economies except major energy exporters, but solar and wind have diffused across countries faster and wider than nuclear. After the initial adoption, the maximum annual growth for nuclear power has been 2.6% of national electricity supply (IQR 1.3%-6%), for wind − 1.1% (0.6%-1.7%), and for solar − 0.8% (0.5%-1.3%). The fastest growth of nuclear power occurred in Western Europe in the 1980s, a response by industrialized democracies to the energy supply crises of the 1970s. The European Union (EU), currently experiencing a similar energy supply shock, is planning to expand wind and solar at similarly fast rates. This illustrates that national contexts can impact the speed of technology diffusion at least as much as technology characteristics like cost, granularity, and complexity. In the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change mitigation pathways, renewables grow much faster than nuclear due to their lower projected costs, though empirical evidence does not show that the cost is the sole factor determining the speed of diffusion. We demonstrate that expanding low-carbon electricity in Asia in line with the 1.5 °C target requires growth of nuclear power even if renewables increase as fast as in the most ambitious EU’s plans. 2 °C-consistent pathways in Asia are compatible with replicating China’s nuclear power plans in the whole region, while simultaneously expanding renewables as fast as in the near-term projections for the EU. Our analysis demonstrates the usefulness of empirically-benchmarked feasibility spaces for future technology projections.
ENGAGE Summary for Policymakers
(International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, 2023) van Ruijven, Bas; Jäger, Jill; Riahi, Keywan; Battersby, Stephen; Bertram, Christoph; Bosetti, Valentina; Brutschin, Elina; Byers, Ed; Cherp, Aleh; Drouet, Laurent; Fujimori, Shinichiro; Krey, Volker; Schaeffer, Roberto; Schmidt Tagomori, Isabela; van Vuuren, Detlef P.; Vrontisi, Zoi; Department of Environmental Sciences and Policy
As the world faces the risks of dangerous climate change, policymakers, industry and civil society leaders are counting on Integrated Assessment Models (IAMs) to inform and guide strategies to deliver on the objectives of the Paris Agreement (PA) and subsequent agreements. The Exploring National and Global Actions to Reduce Greenhouse Gas Emissions (ENGAGE) project has responded to this challenge by engaging these stakeholders in co-producing a new generation of global and national decarbonization pathways.
Feasible deployment of carbon capture and storage and the requirements of climate targets
(2024-09-25) Kazlou, Tsimafei; Cherp, Aleh; Jewell, Jessica; Department of Environmental Sciences and Policy
Climate change mitigation requires the large-scale deployment of carbon capture and storage (CCS). Recent plans indicate an eight-fold increase in CCS capacity by 2030, yet the feasibility of CCS expansion is debated. Using historical growth of CCS and other policy-driven technologies, we show that if plans double between 2023 and 2025 and their failure rates decrease by half, CCS could reach 0.37 GtCO 2 yr -1 by 2030-lower than most 1.5 °C pathways but higher than most 2 °C pathways. Staying on-track to 2 °C would require that in 2030-2040 CCS accelerates at least as fast as wind power did in the 2000s, and that after 2040, it grows faster than nuclear power did in the 1970s to 1980s. Only 10% of mitigation pathways meet these feasibility constraints, and virtually all of them depict <600 GtCO 2 captured and stored by 2100. Relaxing the constraints by assuming no failures of CCS plans and growth as fast as flue-gas desulfurization would approximately double this amount.
Coal phase-out pledges follow peak coal : evidence from 60 years of growth and decline in coal power capacity worldwide
(2023-01-01) Lægreid, Ole Martin; Cherp, Aleh; Jewell, Jessica
Transitioning to net-zero carbon emissions requires phasing-out unabated coal power; however, recently it has only been declining in some countries, while it stagnated or even increased in others. Where and under what circumstances, has coal capacity reached its peak and begun to decline? We address this question with an empirical analysis of coal capacity in 56 countries, accounting for 99% of coal generation in the world. The peaks in national coal power have been equally spread per decade since 1970. The peaks are more likely to occur in country-years with high levels of electoral democracy, higher GDP per capita, slower electricity demand growth, and with low levels of political corruption. Normally, peaking coal power preceded rather than followed political coal phase-out pledges, often with long time lags. We conclude that though the cost of coal alternatives are declining and concerns over climate change increasing, coal power does not automatically peak even in situations with low demand growth, aging power plants and high import dependence. A quick and decisive destabilization of coal regimes requires, in addition, having sufficient economic capacities and strong democratic governance.

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